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Jan 28, 20223 min read
Showdown on the Slowdown
An observation that we have frequently made is that the policy error in this cycle and the QE regime has not been tightening too early, but
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Jan 27, 20223 min read
Too Fast, Too Furious
It is always important how price responds to news. While the initial reaction to the January FOMC statement was relatively calm, the price a
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Jan 26, 20222 min read
The Strike Price of the Fed Put
The price action on Monday in the US session was rapid and emotional. It appeared cathartic to a degree given the very large volume and the
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Jan 24, 20223 min read
I Would Do Anything for Dove (But I won't sell that...)
From our perch, market sentiment and consensus beliefs edged closer to outright panic or capitulation on Friday in the United States. While
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Jan 21, 20223 min read
Un-BEAR-able
From our perch, today is not the day to turn bearish on equity despite the ugly close in the United States. The time to do that was in late
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Jan 20, 20222 min read
The Correlated Shock
A question we often ask is; “what is your quarrel with price?” In our humble opinion markets are not efficient in a macro (or micro) sense b
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Jan 19, 20223 min read
Terminal Velocity?
Earlier this week we highlighted that a key element of a behavioural episode is when market participants become focussed on a single story.
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Jan 18, 20222 min read
The China Pivot
From our humble perch, China’s policymakers pivoted at the start of December to support growth. So far, the changes have been incremental (c
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Jan 18, 20222 min read
Asia Bond Blurb - Jan 18, 2022
Monday was a bit of a shocker. The star of the show was Logan Property (BB-), falling as much as 15 points, despite..
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Jan 17, 20223 min read
Peak (Inflation) Fear?
One of the key ways we describe a behavioural episode, is when market participants are focused on a single story. Or put another way, when a
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Jan 14, 20223 min read
Asia Bond Blurb - Jan, 14 2022
After a weak morning China Property bond prices have taken another step down this afternoon. In IG ..
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Jan 13, 20222 min read
(Hawk) Talk is Cheap
The way price responded to news of the highest inflation print since 1982 suggests that recent trading was all about the worst-case outcome.
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