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Mar 3, 20223 min read
Cognitive Dissonance
From our perch, it is plausible that markets are experiencing a phase of cognitive dissonance on inflation and policy risk. Cognitive disson
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Feb 28, 20223 min read
Proper Risk
An observation we have often made is that “volatility” is not an adequate measure of risk. Rather, proper risk is the permanent loss of capi
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Feb 24, 20223 min read
Has the Game Changed?
Abstracting from the short term price action, a key big picture question for investors is whether the game has changed? Put another way, has
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Feb 22, 20223 min read
The World is Short Convexity
As my astute Italian friend noted overnight, a key reason why there is always such a strong resistance to consider extreme outcomes like mon
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Feb 18, 20223 min read
Eternal Hope & The Barbarous Relic
One of the extraordinary features of the current inflation/rates episode is that the markets appear to be focused on the end of the tighteni
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Feb 15, 20223 min read
Cluster-Struck Part II; Enter the "Armchair Generals"
For those not familiar with the term, an “armchair general” is someone who portrays themselves as an expert on military or strategic matters
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Feb 11, 20223 min read
Cluster-Struck
Since 1913, 90% of Fed rate cycles have ended in recession. On the positive side, as we have noted before, the real damage from higher rate
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Feb 8, 20222 min read
Why Get Less When You Can Get More
Earlier this week we had an interesting question on whether there was “value” in small companies, specifically US small companies. The obser
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Feb 7, 20223 min read
Appetite for (Self) Destruction
The lead guitarist of Guns N’ Roses has been described as a “train-wreck within a train wreck.” Nonetheless, Slash is likely one of the grea
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Feb 4, 20223 min read
Face-Plant: And the Implication for Trend Returns
Earlier this week we noted that according to chaos theory, the edge of chaos with maximum complexity exists between paradigm shifts. Followi
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Feb 3, 20223 min read
The Sigh of the Tiger
On Monday we suggested that there is an uncomfortable parallel with the market correction in the fourth quarter of 2018. That correction was
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Jan 31, 20223 min read
Like a Tiger.
From our humble understanding of the Zodiac, the Tiger is a symbol of strength and bravery. Those traits will likely be needed for investors
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