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Jan 21, 20223 min read
Un-BEAR-able
From our perch, today is not the day to turn bearish on equity despite the ugly close in the United States. The time to do that was in late
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Jan 20, 20222 min read
The Correlated Shock
A question we often ask is; “what is your quarrel with price?” In our humble opinion markets are not efficient in a macro (or micro) sense b
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Jan 19, 20223 min read
Terminal Velocity?
Earlier this week we highlighted that a key element of a behavioural episode is when market participants become focussed on a single story.
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Jan 18, 20222 min read
The China Pivot
From our humble perch, China’s policymakers pivoted at the start of December to support growth. So far, the changes have been incremental (c
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Jan 17, 20223 min read
Peak (Inflation) Fear?
One of the key ways we describe a behavioural episode, is when market participants are focused on a single story. Or put another way, when a
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Jan 13, 20222 min read
(Hawk) Talk is Cheap
The way price responded to news of the highest inflation print since 1982 suggests that recent trading was all about the worst-case outcome.
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Jan 11, 20222 min read
The Fed & Financial Conditions (the darker shadow)
Former Chairman of the New York Fed and now Bloomberg opinion columnist Bill Dudley suggested that the FOMC needs to “tighten financial cond
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Jan 10, 20223 min read
Locked & Loaded
In policy circles it is never accurate to say that something is a “done deal” but the direction of official interest rates over the next few
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Jan 7, 20223 min read
"Welcome to the Party Pal"
The irony about the market’s reaction to the hawkish FOMC minutes this week on the discussion of balance sheet run-off is that it should not
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Jan 6, 20223 min read
Quantitative Tightening; not Quentin Tarantino
The way price responded to the more-hawkish-than-anticipated December FOMC minutes resembled something from a Quentin Tarantino movie – “Kil
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Jan 3, 20223 min read
Wonder-Fall: Don't Look Back in Anger
Welcome to 2022 and hopefully to a prosperous new year. It is an obvious point, but we should generally endeavour to focus on the future; af
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Dec 20, 20212 min read
HO HO-UH OH
Pro-cyclical beliefs had already been under pressure over the past four weeks prior to the decision over the weekend by Senator Joe Machin’s
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