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Feb 18, 20223 min read
Eternal Hope & The Barbarous Relic
One of the extraordinary features of the current inflation/rates episode is that the markets appear to be focused on the end of the tighteni
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Feb 15, 20223 min read
Cluster-Struck Part II; Enter the "Armchair Generals"
For those not familiar with the term, an “armchair general” is someone who portrays themselves as an expert on military or strategic matters
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Feb 11, 20223 min read
Cluster-Struck
Since 1913, 90% of Fed rate cycles have ended in recession. On the positive side, as we have noted before, the real damage from higher rate
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Feb 8, 20222 min read
Why Get Less When You Can Get More
Earlier this week we had an interesting question on whether there was “value” in small companies, specifically US small companies. The obser
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Feb 7, 20223 min read
Appetite for (Self) Destruction
The lead guitarist of Guns N’ Roses has been described as a “train-wreck within a train wreck.” Nonetheless, Slash is likely one of the grea
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Feb 4, 20223 min read
Face-Plant: And the Implication for Trend Returns
Earlier this week we noted that according to chaos theory, the edge of chaos with maximum complexity exists between paradigm shifts. Followi
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Feb 3, 20223 min read
The Sigh of the Tiger
On Monday we suggested that there is an uncomfortable parallel with the market correction in the fourth quarter of 2018. That correction was
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Jan 31, 20223 min read
Like a Tiger.
From our humble understanding of the Zodiac, the Tiger is a symbol of strength and bravery. Those traits will likely be needed for investors
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Jan 28, 20223 min read
Showdown on the Slowdown
An observation that we have frequently made is that the policy error in this cycle and the QE regime has not been tightening too early, but
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Jan 27, 20223 min read
Too Fast, Too Furious
It is always important how price responds to news. While the initial reaction to the January FOMC statement was relatively calm, the price a
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Jan 26, 20222 min read
The Strike Price of the Fed Put
The price action on Monday in the US session was rapid and emotional. It appeared cathartic to a degree given the very large volume and the
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Jan 24, 20223 min read
I Would Do Anything for Dove (But I won't sell that...)
From our perch, market sentiment and consensus beliefs edged closer to outright panic or capitulation on Friday in the United States. While
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