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Mar 28, 20223 min read
When to Buy Bonds?
There is an old saying in the stock market that you should be buying when they’re crying and selling when they’re yelling. The observation i
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Mar 25, 20223 min read
Until Something Breaks
There has clearly been a shift in the prevailing bias on the path of future short term interest rates this week. The upshot is that the Wall
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Mar 22, 20223 min read
Return of the Gamma Hammer
In automotive terms, if the delta of an option is its speed, then gamma is the acceleration. This analogy can also be extended to the relati
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Mar 21, 20223 min read
The Un-"Bear"-able Truth for China
The Un-"Bear"-able Truth for ChinaSir Winston Churchill once described Russia as a “riddle wrapped inside a mystery, inside an enigma.” He c
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Mar 17, 20223 min read
Talk like a Hawk
Jay Powell’s communication today was like Volcker, but his actions were more like Bernanke. The Fed delivered a 25 basis point hike in the F
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Mar 10, 20223 min read
Unhinged
An common expression that winds me up with reference to markets is “uncertainty” – markets are always uncertain by definition because human
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Mar 9, 20223 min read
The Cathartic Flush
On the positive side in this region, the outright valuation and equity risk premium is a lot more attractive in Asia Pacific. That is bullis
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Mar 7, 20222 min read
Entering a Phase of Genuine Panic
While some indicators of financial stress appear more sanguine than in the aftermath of 1998 Russia default, there are some genuinely troubl
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Mar 3, 20223 min read
Cognitive Dissonance
From our perch, it is plausible that markets are experiencing a phase of cognitive dissonance on inflation and policy risk. Cognitive disson
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Feb 28, 20223 min read
Proper Risk
An observation we have often made is that “volatility” is not an adequate measure of risk. Rather, proper risk is the permanent loss of capi
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Feb 24, 20223 min read
Has the Game Changed?
Abstracting from the short term price action, a key big picture question for investors is whether the game has changed? Put another way, has
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Feb 22, 20223 min read
The World is Short Convexity
As my astute Italian friend noted overnight, a key reason why there is always such a strong resistance to consider extreme outcomes like mon
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