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May 20, 20223 min read
The Thunder from Down Under
Over the past few weeks your humble student of the markets has been on the road Down Under. Clearly cross asset volatility has remained elev
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May 5, 20223 min read
More Nails in the Macro Conditions Coffin
From our perch, to describe the policy change by the FOMC today as a “dovish hike” is an oxymoron. To be fair, the Fed was clearly less hawk
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Apr 29, 20223 min read
The Crash in Trash
The crash in trash (profitless technology companies) has been brutal year to date and from the peak in February last year (-40% year to date
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Apr 26, 20222 min read
Highway to Sell (Heavy Metal Version)
Financial market volatility has continued over the past week, but has started to take on a new dimension. In contrast to the recent inflatio
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Apr 22, 20222 min read
Too Much Doom in the Room
As we often note, a behavioural episode is typically characterised by; a rapid and violent movement in price; focus on a single story; and o
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Apr 20, 20223 min read
Value versus the Prevailing Bias
Three major fears in the market prevailing bias; 1) inflation; 2) higher interest rates; and 3) and an imminent earnings downgrade cycle are
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Apr 13, 20223 min read
The Slope of Hope
The recent market obsession – inflation – wasn’t quite as bad as feared, with the core reading falling well short of the consensus forecast
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Apr 12, 20223 min read
Cluster Struck
The news flow this week is likely to be relatively important for markets. Of course, as we often note, it is how price responds that matters
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Apr 6, 20222 min read
Brain-Fade
From our perch, the communication from the Fed’s Brainard overnight was thick with irony. As my Italian friend noted, I never thought I woul
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Apr 4, 20223 min read
Hot Stuff
The recent macro news flow has many parallels with the 1970s. As a result, I cannot seem to get the immortal Donna Summer out of my head. Th
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Mar 31, 20223 min read
The (Unsustainable) Gap Between Actions & Promises
Oh boy, what a quarter it has been in markets. The round trip on the S&P500 (the global risk proxy) has been -14% from the early January hig
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Mar 29, 20223 min read
The Zen of Yen
Following the balance sheet recession Japan has experienced a long (perpetual) phase of near zero interest rates. The period also coincided
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