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Jun 16, 20222 min read
Blue Horseshoe Loves 75bp
The leak to the Wall Street Journal was on Monday ahead of the June FOMC was on the money. The FOMC hiked the funds rate by 75 basis points
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Jun 15, 20223 min read
Backdraft
The prevailing bias on short term interest rates ahead of the June FOMC meeting tonight clearly has a hawkish skew. Of course, only a “10 ye
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Jun 14, 20223 min read
The Evisceration Phase
A key element of our process is to assess whether a price episode is an emotional overreaction or a genuine response to a shift in fundament
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Jun 13, 20222 min read
Hail Storm
An important question investors should always ask is; “what is your quarrel with price?” From our perch, the reaction to the US data on Frid
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Jun 9, 20223 min read
Like a Wrecking Ball
The impulsive rally in the US dollar over the past year has once again highlighted its role as a wrecking ball for risk assets. To be fair,
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Jun 7, 20222 min read
On the Brink of Demand Destruction
An observation we made late last year prior to the conflict in Ukraine was that the arithmetic of energy was fairly straightforward. Resourc
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Jun 6, 20222 min read
Mr. Justified
From our perch, Friday’s US employment report didn’t really change perceptions on the state of the US economy. While there was some evidence
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Jun 2, 20222 min read
Don't Say The Quiet Part Out Loud
Earlier this year the monthly US employment report was significant as a key input for the Fed’s reaction function and short term interest ra
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May 31, 20222 min read
Taming the Hurricane
It is an obvious point, but volatility is a derivative of price itself. From our perch, there has been a notable moderation in bond and swap
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May 27, 20223 min read
The Flightless Bird
Something that caught our eye this week was the policy action by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hike the official cash rate by 50 basis
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May 26, 20222 min read
Where Credit's Due
One of the troubling elements of the recent episode has been the sustained widening in credit spreads (the credit risk premium). Of course,
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May 25, 20222 min read
It's Never a Straight Line
From our perch, the prevailing bias has become rather pessimistic on risk assets. That observation is evident in a range of sentiment and po
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