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Aug 31, 20223 min read
Fire in the - Jackson - Hole
Immediately following the July FOMC meeting, the prevailing bias appeared to shift to the belief that the Fed had executed a “dovish pivot.”
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Aug 12, 20223 min read
One Direction
Markets, whether in a bull market or a bear market, never move in one direction. As Dr. Burry noted on the bird app this week, in the 2000 e
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Aug 11, 20222 min read
Premature Extrapolation
TUE 08 AUG 2022 Sometimes the most obvious interpretation is the correct one. The July US CPI was lower than expectations on the headline...
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Aug 8, 20222 min read
Inversion
A key part of our process is to determine whether there is a divergence between price or consensus beliefs on the one hand and the fundament
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Aug 4, 20223 min read
The Battle between the Hawks & the Doves
Over the past few weeks while your humble student of the markets was away from the screens there has been an intense battle between the infl
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Jul 8, 20222 min read
Not Yet
There is little doubt that the prevailing bias has shifted from inflation and interest rate fear to growth risk. In recent weeks the deterio
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Jul 4, 20222 min read
I am not Uncertain
A cliché we often hear is that markets hate uncertainty. That tends to wind us up because markets are always uncertain as human beings canno
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Jun 29, 20222 min read
Doctor (Not So) Feel Good
An observation we made last week is that the rapid and emotional tightening in broad financial conditions has started to impact the spot pri
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Jun 28, 20222 min read
Triumph of the Shill
It is an obvious point, however, the key components of equity return are; 1) earnings per share; and 2) the valuation multiple. Of course, t
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Jun 24, 20223 min read
Where Credit's Due; Part II
There has been a notable shift in the prevailing bias over the past week from inflation/rate risk to recession fear. While aggregate earning
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Jun 23, 20223 min read
The Panic Zone
It is clearly an understatement to say that the broad selling in equities became extreme last week. From our perch, that sets the stage for
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Jun 22, 20222 min read
The Titanic Yen
The rally in the US dollar and depreciation of the Japanese Yen has become episodic. Clearly it has not gone unnoticed and is now the focus
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